Estimation Secrets & Anti-patterns
Every team estimates. Almost no team estimates well.
Planning Poker was designed to generate honest, independent estimates through a clever combination of anonymity and discussion. In practice, it often produces anchored groupthink, endless debates about "is this a 5 or an 8?", and exhausted teams that pad every story just to avoid the argument next time.
The good news: estimation dysfunction has known causes and known fixes. This module gives you the diagnostic tools to identify which anti-pattern your team is caught in — and the practical alternatives to break the cycle.
What You'll Learn in This Module
- The three root causes of estimation dysfunction (anchoring, social pressure, undefined DoD)
- How to run Planning Poker in a way that actually produces independent estimates
- When T-shirt sizing and #NoEstimates are better fits than story points
- The difference between under-commitment and over-commitment — and why both are traps
- Concrete techniques for setting sprint commitments that stick
Module Lessons
- Why Planning Poker Fails — Root causes of estimation dysfunction; anchoring bias in practice; social pressure and the HiPPO effect; how to fix each
- Alternative Estimation Methods — T-shirt sizing, #NoEstimates, Affinity Mapping; when each makes sense; how to choose for your team's context
- Commitment Traps: Under vs Over-commitment — Why teams consistently miss sprint goals; the psychology of sandbagging; how to calibrate commitments with historical data
Complete all three lessons and earn the Estimation Expert badge. Your next sprint planning will never feel the same.